The head wins!
For the record, Nate Silver predicted every state exactly. I'm no mathmetician, but I think that's pretty good.
The winner of the election was Obama, and it was also the polls. The polls were right.
And this pleases me.
It's nice to know that there are some knowable things in the world. That it's not just hunches and vibrations. And speaking of Peggy Noonan, can we please just take another look at some of that column she wrote yesterday? I mean, seriously:
"Among the wisest words spoken this cycle were by John Dickerson of CBS News and Slate, who said, in a conversation the night before the last presidential debate, that he thought maybe the American people were quietly cooking something up, something we don’t know about.
I think they are and I think it’s this: a Romney win."
"There is no denying the Republicans have the passion now, the enthusiasm. The Democrats do not. Independents are breaking for Romney. And there’s the thing about the yard signs. In Florida a few weeks ago I saw Romney signs, not Obama ones. From Ohio I hear the same. From tony Northwest Washington, D.C., I hear the same."
"Maybe that’s the real distortion of the polls this year: They left us discounting the world around us."
"I suspect both Romney and Obama have a sense of what’s coming, and it’s part of why Romney looks so peaceful and Obama so roiled."
Conservatives in the media, it's time to stop being so stupid. Or at least it's time to stop writing the stupid things down.
During this election, I couldn't help but be obsessed with polls. A lot of us were. And with all of the numbers and the pundits and the crazy conservatives, there was a lot of confusion as to what was actually happening.
It all gets put out into the world day after day and we immediately forget about it.
But I don't. It sticks with me. And it makes me mad. Why are people allowed to say wrong things and not get called out on it?
The problem is, there's no documentation of all of this. So I get frustrated because I never remember exactly all of the stupid things that were said. This bugs the shit out of me in sports, and especially in politics. The election happens, or the big game, or whatever it is, and I know that people were completely wrong, but I can't remember exactly who they were and what they said. There's no one for me to properly mock.
And then, when the next election comes around, or the NFL draft, I start from zero again. I won't know who to listen to. I'll start second guessing the polling again. Or start believing what Mel Kiper is saying.
Well, not this time. This time, I attempted to keep a record.
I realized that through Twitter, for the first time, it would be very easy to do this. Because Twitter has a handy function called "favorites". You see a tweet and you hit a little star, and that tweet is saved for you.
So I followed some conservatives, and any time they tweeted something I thought I might want to see after the election, I favorited it.
The election is over, so let's have some fun and look at what some of these genius's had to say. I'll start from most recent tweet to last:
@jeff_jacoby The sound at the Romney event just crushes the Obama campaign. One seemed like a wedding, one seemed like a funeral.
"Just trust me. There is no way Romney gets 270 electoral votes." -- people who believed Obama's promise to cut the deficit in half.
Obama drags around two of the biggest stars in the world for free concerts and can't attract the crowds Mitt does on his own.
Newt Gingrich forecast: Romney by more than 53%, 300 plus EVs, control of the Senate. He says polls are skewed. (I know, I sed no Twitter)
Sandy Bounce is fading, fading, fading ...
OK, here's my official Electoral College prediction for #election2012. http://bit.ly/SILSYv #RomneyRyan2012
The polls are wrong: The electorate is R+6 http://bit.ly/XeuBtH #tcot #tbrs #teaparty
so enjoying watching people like @fivethirtyeight and @TheStalwart ruin their credibility. good times.
I think it's entirely possible for Mitt to run up the score and get 330 electoral votes. If Obama wins, he'll barely break 270.
Obama has a lock on re-election. That's why he's begging his base voters to show up & running ads comparing voting 4 him 2 sex. Yep. A lock.
I really can't figure out why Mitt is in Pennsylvania. All the anonymous left-wing trolls on Twitter told me Obama already won Pennsylvania.
I cannot believe that PA is in play or the GOP. America is really fed up with Obama
Prediction Time: 1) The election won't end Tuesday night. 7 states will b decided by 1 pt or less. (VA, OH, CO, IA, PA, WI, NH)
I just want the job of giving Obama/Biden lovely parting gifts and thanking them for playing.
Poll: Romney Up 1 in Michigan http://shar.es/cLF0q via @BreitbartNews
3 more days until Obama throws the mother of all hissy fits in his concession speech.
Landslide Watch: Romney Up in Colorado, Ohio and Minnesota – Tied in Pennsylvania http://shar.es/cNE1A
I don't care if that MN poll was done by a conservative group. The fact that MN is in play is bad, bad news for @Obama2012.
Every day that goes by I become more convinced that Obama is going to end up with 47% of the vote. Oh how sweet that would be!
All the news about actual votes coming in says GOP enthusiasm is off the charts and Dem turnout in Dem-heavy areas is weak, weak, weak.
Early voting has been brutal for Dems. GOP enthusiasm is white hot (becuz racism.) Mitt has >> money. But, Dems have Nate Silver!
Barone: Romney with 315 electoral votes >> http://bit.ly/SlLFIy
Obama team panicking, Romney team expands the map >
Romney's visit to PA, Plouffe said, is a "desperate ploy."
So Obama is losing the early vote, has less money, and lower enthusiasm but he's still going to win. Do I have this right @fivethirtyeight?
Media is bored with Biden's gaffes. Odd, they were so interested in Bush and Palin gaffes that they even invented many of them.
Has anyone done a good summary piece on how Nate Silver has become the Sandra Fluke of statisticians? I don't get it. #numbersmartyr
GALLUP: Mitt 51, Obama 46 with likely voters. No candidate at or over 50% this late in this poll has ever lost.
RASMUSSEN: Mitt now leads in Ohio, 50-48. But I think that RASMUSSEN is oversampling early voters. Mitt's actual lead may be bigger.
Bottom line of PPPs OH, FL, NH polls: If Obama gets much better turnout than 08, he will win by less than he did in 08. Think about that.
Wow PPP working overtime for Obama this week. Big swings towards him in Ohio, Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire, etc. (no one else shows that).
GALLUP: Mitt leads 50-46 among likely voters. No candidate at or above 50% this late in this poll has ever lost.
PSA: if I change my mind about OH, I promise to share. That's very unlikely to happen unless Obama closes the gap in national polling.
I'm currently predicting 296 electoral votes for Romney, winning: FL, VA, NC, OH, WI, CO, IA, NH, and getting one of ME's votes.
Right now, the only two GWB states I see flipping to Obama are NM and maybe NV. Mitt has a great shot at WI, fair shots at MI, PA, MN.
This is what left wing sour grapes looks like. They know they're going to lose. http://m.apnews.com/ap/db_289563/contentdetail.htm?contentguid=cGixjazt …
I am VERY confident. I am as confident today that Mitt will win as I was at this point 4 years ago that Obama would win.
It's really a shame that our first black president is such a failure. I'm confident Allen West will do when his time comes.
Can we just all agree on this: If Mitt Romney wins, Nate Silver will permanently be known as as the "Dick Morris" of poll analysts.
Is @fivethirtyeight a parody account? Asking for a friend.
GALLUP: Mitt 51, Obama 46 among likely voters. No candidate at or above 50 this late in this poll has ever lost.
Typically, if the polls are around 50-47 in the challenger's favor on election day, the actual election results will be around 52-48.
RASMUSSEN: Among likely voters, Mitt leads Obama 50-47 nationally, 50-46 in the swing states. He has also pulled even in WI at 49-49.
Worst part of this is that there are STILL people in America who think @BarackObama is a serious person.
So is @fivethirtyeight anything more than a MSM-approved http://unskewedpolls.com ?
This is what a developing landslide looks like in late Oct.
Dems Begin the Post-Obama Blame Game http://bit.ly/S66HOq
Obama under 50% in Ohio, col, fla, va, wis, Iowa, nc, mich, nev, nh
It sure seems that 50% is Mitt's floor while 47% is Obama's ceiling. That is, unless something drastically changes the next 13 days.
Given the results of the first 4 years, it is literally INSANE to allow Obama to continue them another 4 years. Unless you hate America.
I really don't understand how people consider Obama 'the favorite' to win the election. Isn't he down in the polls with no momentum?
After Romney wins FL and VA, all he needs is OH and one other "swing" state. But, Obama needs OH and a combo of three more.
Nate Silver’s Flawed Model - Josh Jordan - National Review Online http://tinyurl.com/9ch5ntm via
Short version of Nate Silver model: (1) yet another bad poll for Obama, (2) ????? (3) Obama is way ahead!!!!11!!
I think Mitt will win IA and has a very good chance to win WI as well.
And Team O wants us to believe its lead is like it was in 2008?!?! Any idjit who lives in PA knows that there is no way.
So, Mitt is moving staff into PA. PA has been fool's gold for GOPers since 1988. But the Mitt campaign knows what it's doing.
Here in VA we're on the verge of victory. Looking good on the ground.
I see we're back to cooked media polls of swing states using 2008 turnout models again. They must think we're dumb.
Joe Biden's task for tonight: prayer. He is so screwed.
Remember that model by two Colorado professors that predicts a Mitt win and has never been wrong? They updated it. --> http://www.colorado.edu/news/releases/2012/10/04/updated-election-forecasting-model-still-points-romney-win-university …
Dear leftists: Obama has never been as smart as you were fooled into believing he is. I'm sorry you're just now realizing this. Truth hurts.
Really, the Dem levels of excitement and enthusiasm for Obama are WAY down from 4 years ago. No comparison.
Your average liberal is an incredibly selfish person who thinks government exists to give them other people's stuff.
I'm going to repeat something I said earlier: old media/pundits are badly misreading how the public will react to the Mitt video. #hunch
I think after yesterday and today, we can make it official: Obama is the worst President in modern American history. Carter can now relax.
Let me be clear: Obama is the worst president in American history.
I guess the best news is not that Obama won, it's that you won't have to suffer through my election posts for awhile. 4 more years!